A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR ETHNOMEDICINAL DISCOVERY RESEARCH- A NIGERIAN CASE STUDY

Abstract

Using a model parametrically dependent on a number of research factors we have examined the relationship between ethnomedicinal drug discovery research in Nigeria and the goal of advancing drug candidates into preclinical evaluation. Our investigation covered a 13-year period and involves several ethnomedicinally relevant plant materials. The employed qualitative model utilizes model scores in assessing research quality and the chances to attain preclinical testing. Based on the model, the research methodologies were found to focus on highly rudimentary tools involving crude extraction, which the model indicated as a vital disadvantage. The existence of foreign collaborations as well as the number of such collaborations was found to improve model score and as extension the likelihood to generate candidates for drug development.

Key words: Ethnomedicine, Drug discovery, Natural product drug discovery, Model score, Drug development.